Skip to main content

UK glaucoma cases projected to rise sharply, highlighting urgent need for earlier detection and service innovation

Share:

3 min read

Themes:

Subjects:

A new study published in the British Journal of Ophthalmology and commissioned by Glaucoma UK suggests that the number of people living with glaucoma in the UK is already higher than previously estimated and is projected to rise to more than 1.6 million by 2060.
An ophthalmologist examines a patient’s eye using a specialist microscope in a clinical setting. There is diagnostic imaging displayed on a screen in the background.

Glaucoma is the leading cause of irreversible blindness worldwide and is often asymptomatic until its later stages, making early detection critical to preventing sight loss.

Supported by our BRC, the study was led by Professor Paul Foster, Professor of Glaucoma Studies at UCL and a consultant ophthalmologist at Moorfields Eye Hospital. Using the most recent UK census data and existing clinical research, researchers modelled current and future glaucoma prevalence among people aged 40 and over. They found that around 1 million people in the UK are already living with glaucoma and this figure is expected to increase by around 60% over the next three decades.

This rise is driven by an ageing population and increasing ethnic diversity (both known risk factors for glaucoma) and significantly outpaces projected population growth in the same age group. Importantly, the findings suggest that earlier estimates may have underestimated the true scale of glaucoma in the UK, particularly in higher risk populations.

A headshot of Prof Paul Foster. Paul is wearing a suit and glasses and smiling at the camera.

Late diagnosis is a major contributor to preventable sight loss.

Professor Paul Foster, study lead, said:
“Late diagnosis comes with a higher risk of sight loss and higher costs of care; over 40% of glaucoma patients in the UK experience vision loss that could have been prevented with earlier diagnosis and treatment such as eye drops or surgery.”

The studies new projections underline the need for earlier case detection, increased diagnoses and long-term service planning to meet the growing demand on ophthalmic services. International experts emphasise that strategies such as structured case detection, improved surveillance, and emerging technologies including artificial intelligence could substantially reduce future visual impairment.

At NIHR Moorfields BRC, researchers and clinicians are already working to address these challenges through innovation in glaucoma detection, monitoring, and treatment pathways.

One example is the HERCULES project, which is evaluating community-based glaucoma testing hubs designed to relieve pressure on hospital eye services. These consultant-reviewed hubs aim to expand diagnostic capacity and ensure patients receive timely and accessible specialist input. The findings from this new study provide further evidence to support the need for such service innovations, reinforcing the role of research in shaping future eye care delivery.

While the projected rise in glaucoma cases presents a significant challenge, it also presents an opportunity to strengthen research. Ongoing eye care research will be essential to help eye health services meet future demands and improve outcomes for patients at risk of glaucoma.

Further Reading